Socorro, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

303
FXUS65 KABQ 012322 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 318 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

- Rapid warming trend will continue through early next week.
  Record high temperatures will be threatened in some areas.

- Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated
  fire weather concerns for portions of NM through early next
  week, particularly for this afternoon and Wednesday over
  eastern NM.

- Warm, dry and wind conditions this coming week will erode much
  of the snowpack in the mountains creating some runoff flow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

The main story for New Mexico weather this coming week will be
the much above normal temperatures expected especially Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures could be 15 to 25 degrees
above normal on these days. Conditions will also be dry and windy
so rapid fire growth with any fires could be a concern. The
weather pattern does support several weak fronts that push down
the extreme eastern parts of the state which could push
temperatures down some for the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

Batches of cirrus were quite thick this morning, stunting our
warming trend for a bit, but they do appear to be thinning per
latest satellite imagery. Some rapid temperature gains should
therefore be realized in the last few hours before sunset this
evening. The lee-side surface trough and increased flow aloft have
led to breezy to locally windy conditions which will also persist
through sunset with vertical mixing escalating through this time.
Beyond sunset, the boundary layer does not look to fully decouple in
much of the eastern half of NM with the implication of at least
light, if not moderate, westerly breezes persisting overnight (peak
speeds of 15-25 mph along and just east of the central highlands).
Cirrus clouds will thin out, but not fully erode away tonight. This
slight inhibition to radiational cooling and the aforementioned
downsloping breezes in eastern zones will keep overnight
temperatures milder.

Into Sunday, the lee-side surface trough is modeled with similar
strength and orientation over southeast CO and northeast NM, but
there has been some strengthening with the 700 mb wind speeds,
mainly over and just to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos. The SREF
paints mean 700 mb wind speeds of 35-50 kt over this mountain range,
so areas to the lee will need to be monitored for some gusty
conditions and perhaps brief mountain wave activity late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, Sundays conditions will be quite similar to
today with temperatures continuing to rise as pressure heights also
increase. Additional batches of cirrus will move in Sunday night
into Monday morning with even milder overnight lows (8 to 20 degrees
above normal).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

Overall jet stream pattern by Monday looking at both the GFS and
ECMWF ensemble 500mb mean heights/anomalies looks to be a bit of
an omega blocking pattern with a highly anomalous ridge over
Alaska with a trough over the Pac NW leading to zonal flow over
much of the CONUS. And really through the end of the coming week
there is not much change in this pattern. There are some
indications that a ridge to south south of the zonal flow could
nudge a little bit to the north over Mexico which could decrease
the zonal flow over New Mexico but there is just not a lot of
confidence in that as the strewth of the trough over the Pac NW
should be the main driver for the pattern.

What this means for much of New Mexico is above normal 500mb
height anomalies for the much of the week leading to higher
temperatures. Any jet streaks or disturbances that move through
the flow will be limited in moisture so not much in the way of
precipitation is being forecast. There may be a series of shallow
backdoor cold fronts that move into eastern NM for the last half
of the week which makes for a higher spread between the 25th and
75th percentiles of high temperatures. That will be where there
lies lower confidence in forecast temperatures. Otherwise the main
weather hazards with really limited impacts for the coming week:

- High temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal especially
  Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Elevated fire weather - dry and breezy conditions which could
  lead to wildfire growth with any fires.
- Snowpack melt - what snow we do have in higher terrain will melt
  or sublime (change phase from solid to gas) due to wind/dry.
  There may be some increased flows with runoff but anything that
  melts should go into the ground or sublime into the atmosphere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 318 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, with bouts of high clouds resulting in periods of VFR
cigs. Gusty westerly winds will diminish this evening, but be
slower to diminish east of the central mountain chain. Similar
gusty westerly winds are forecast Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025

Temperatures are climbing today, and will continue to soar well
above normal into next week while dry conditions prevail. The daily
weather pattern will be somewhat monotonous and similar each day
with bouts of breezy to windy conditions developing each afternoon
as a lee-side surface trough makes residence over southeast CO and
northeast NM. Wind direction will predominantly stay from the west,
meaning much of the eastern half of NM will observe downslope winds
that will help warm the temperatures there while depleting moisture.
Humidity each afternoon will commonly drop to 10 to 20 percent,
leading to marginal to elevated critical fire weather conditions,
particularly over the southwestern and eastern Fire Weather Zones,
not just today, but each subsequent day through next week. Vertical
mixing will increase as a result of the warmer temperatures and
stronger transport winds (winds at the top of the mixed layer), and
this will yield overall improved smoke ventilation. However,
prescribed burns and any other outdoor burning will need to be done
with caution due to the gusty and dry conditions, especially from
the central highlands to the east central plains (Clines Corners to
Santa Rosa to Tucumcari and nearby areas).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  58  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  25  61  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  21  65  21  69 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  24  62  26  68 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  22  66  23  71 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  26  63  28  70 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  35  68  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  29  65  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  70  24  75 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  31  71  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  20  53  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  32  59  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  31  60  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  27  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  21  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  18  51  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  20  56  24  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  32  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  25  63  28  68 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  59  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  29  63  30  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  62  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  64  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  30  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  27  67  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  31  65  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  25  66  27  71 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  30  65  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  24  66  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  62  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  31  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  34  72  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  34  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  34  60  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  32  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  23  65  25  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  30  61  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  33  64  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  30  64  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  35  67  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  65  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  64  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  26  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  25  71  31  74 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  30  68  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  35  74  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  33  72  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  35  78  38  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  40  73  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  36  77  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  38  76  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  37  77  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  35  76  37  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  77  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  40  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  39  75  43  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11